Canada Is Heading For A Hard Landing, Real Estate Prices To…


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Canada Is Heading For A Hard Landing, Real Estate Prices To Drop 30%: Oxford Econ


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FancyNewMe

43 Comments

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  1. I’m curious about markets that didn’t see major rises during the pandemic, like Edmonton. Will these also drop 30%, or will it more match the late-2020 prices that the article cites, and be a much more modest drop?

  2. Maybe I’ll sell my house, rent for a bit, and buy again later. Should be no problem trying to catch a falling dagger, right?

  3. Better dwelling has been saying this for like 5 years now (that I’m aware of probably longer tbh) and it’s a joke now.

  4. I cannot believe everyone is this stupid, 30% drop don’t mean shit to you or me only people that bought before inflation and can’t afford their variable rate mortgage, now having to sell to investors at a loss!

  5. No one who doesn’t have to sell will sell. Not like the market will be flooded. These “low” prices are only low on paper. Not much will change

  6. In the big centers, yes, which will drive up the cost in the lower centers…Saskatchewan and Manitoba will boom…

  7. I don’t know what my current value of my house is? In November of last year I probably could have sold for $1M. So now if it’s $700k, it’s still almost triple what I paid for it.

  8. The population growth rate is not going to bring demand down, and we got a big supply chain backlog. Good luck.. dreaming !!

  9. And meanwhile all your real estate friends on Facebook been posting how “trust us the price of homes won’t fall, it’ll only go up!! Buy now!!” Knowing damn well they were sure to fall.
    Literal scum lol.

  10. Still don’t beleive it.

    If it’s 30% off of the 300% gain than it’s negligible anyway. It wont happen in my market anyway

  11. That’s not a bad thing. It will free up rental housing and they will have to lower rents if they want then rented out

  12. The inflated pandemic prices 800k+ homes or even the smaller homes that were affordable at sub 500k before the pandemic?

  13. Article Highlights:

    * Oxford Economics has warned investors to prepare for a hard landing for Canada’s economy. The research firm attributes the coming shock to high debt loads, elevated inflation, and rising rates. The resulting shock is forecast to lower home prices around 30% from the peak.
    * A hard landing is a recession that happens after a rate adjustment, when trying to calm inflation. This is in contrast to a soft landing, where rates rise but the economy only slows — no recession.
    * Canadian households are too highly indebted to mount a flexible response. Due to supersized debt loads, small increases in interest will add up to a big diversion of income. The firm is forecasting 8.2% of disposable income will be used to carry mortgage payments in Q2 2023, up from 6.5% this year.
    * “Canada’s historically high household debt and housing prices make the economy much more sensitive to interest rates,” said Tony Stillo, a director at Oxford Econ.
    * “Additionally, reduced real income due to stubbornly elevated inflation will further squeeze households and prompt cuts to discretionary spending and a period of deleveraging.”
    * His firm forsees a moderate recession in Canada within the next six-months.

  14. LOL these articles are always amusing, the prices will never come down significantly so long as the realtors and the wealthiest property owners control the governments (especially the provincial ones) more than tenants or “real, actual, going to live in it” homebuyers do. Token measures have token impacts on purple, and ongoing rate hikes just keep hurting regular people while having no impact on the investor class. 🤷‍♂️

  15. Hard landing? You mean things are somewhat normalizing?

    This is. GOOD thing for anyone who isn’t fucking loaded. So most people

  16. So if I bought a house at say 650k a few years back, the prices jumped to 800k (with over bidding) not longer after, now I stand to “loose” 30% of the value of my house.

    So 240k off of the 800k people were bidding. In that case, you’ve lost 10k if you sold… And how long will the price of houses stay that way? I doubt for very long. Just look at the population growth here.

    Supply and demand. By the end of the decade, I would expect to have “made” 400k…

  17. Lots of my Vancouver friends sold and moved to the island or back to Alberta. Made insane money after owning a home for six-ish years

  18. As someone actively shopping for a first home I hope this is true. It is fucked that I can’t afford 3 bedrooms on a 100k/year.

    Though interest rates also are not helping.

  19. If you’re cheering this on, I just want to know how renting is treating you? You fools are happy for the downfall of families.

  20. Let’s think about this.
    1- to buy land and build a house is a fortune.
    So a similar sized property and house would be worth of similar value.
    2- if the amount of people praying for a crash is any indication of the demand for lower priced housing. It means as soon as houses reach a threshold people will gobble up all the inventory and drive prices right back up just like a stock.

  21. I have variable and am totally cool with it. The rates will come down guaranteed, and who cares if home prices crash 30%? They are going to come right back, if your looking to sell soon then ya that sucks, if your not then this is just another internet scare for people.